Experiments
Each test, the skeptic who tried to break it, and what we learned. Newest first.
The Trend Book on years it never saw (Jan 2018 – Aug 2020)
Passed, with a caveatThe crash protection held: in 2018 it lost 7% while Bitcoin fell 74%. The size of the return depends on the dates chosen: +5% to +18% a year.
6 OctThree accounts built around the Trend Book
Now in paperDouble risk, Trend + Gold and Thirds each tested as one account with the real trading rules. Judging trend trades per part of the pot, not the whole pot, kept the rule intact.
6 OctGold, timed with a 12-month trend
FailedLost to simply holding gold in all 45 settings tried. Hold gold outright instead.
6 OctGold as a 21st coin inside the Trend Book
FailedGold’s low swings gave it a big slot that squeezed the coins: 29.5% a year fell to 19.9%. Keep gold as its own part of the pot.
6 OctCommodity carry through USCI
FailedNo edge over plain commodity funds (t 0.3 to 1.4). Its good years were a commodity boom.
6 OctThe published stock strategies against holding the S&P
None beat itEach tested as published, with settings fixed before seeing results. None beat holding the S&P 500 on return; two earn a place as diversifiers.
1 OctStock Pulse’s 24,000 mined rules
No edgeCounted day by day and with the market’s drift removed, the edge was zero (t = −0.03).
1 Oct
