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One proven rule for crypto, traded with $10,000 of pretend money on real prices. Every day after the close (10:00 Brisbane) it holds the coins that are trending up and keeps the rest in cash.
Days before Oct 1 were worked out on that date from the real closing prices, with the same rules. From the dashed line on, the book runs forward one day at a time.
129 paper trades so far, each charged 0.15% for fees and slippage.
| BNB | $650 | 5.8% |
| BTC | $571 | 5.1% |
| ETH | $427 | 3.8% |
| SOL | $392 | 3.5% |
| LINK | $385 | 3.4% |
| LTC | $351 | 3.1% |
| DOGE | $323 | 2.9% |
| XRP | $318 | 2.8% |
| XLM | $316 | 2.8% |
| AVAX | $314 | 2.8% |
| NEAR | $311 | 2.8% |
| AAVE | $311 | 2.8% |
| ADA | $293 | 2.6% |
| ETC | $288 | 2.6% |
| DOT | $276 | 2.5% |
| UNI | $246 | 2.2% |
| FIL | $236 | 2.1% |
| BCH | $216 | 1.9% |
| Cash | $4,965 | 44.4% |
Trends up: how many of its 20-, 60- and 120-day moves are up. Swing: how wild it has been lately, as a yearly figure. Wilder coins get a smaller share, so each one carries the same risk.
| Coin | Trends up | Swing / yr | Share it should hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| BNB | 38% | 5.5% | |
| BTC | 42% | 5.0% | |
| ETH | 57% | 3.7% | |
| SOL | 62% | 3.4% | |
| LTC | 62% | 3.4% | |
| DOGE | 73% | 2.9% | |
| XLM | 74% | 2.8% | |
| LINK | 75% | 2.8% | |
| ADA | 78% | 2.7% | |
| XRP | 78% | 2.7% | |
| ETC | 80% | 2.6% | |
| AVAX | 85% | 2.5% | |
| DOT | 88% | 2.4% | |
| AAVE | 89% | 2.4% | |
| FIL | 102% | 2.1% | |
| BCH | 107% | 2.0% | |
| UNI | 111% | 1.9% | |
| NEAR | 112% | 1.9% | |
| ATOM | 74% | — |
Stock Pulse's own 24,000 strategies showed no real edge once the market's general rise was taken out. This rule did. It's textbook trend following with the standard settings, fixed before any results were looked at. Tested on six years of daily prices with fees included, it made +23.9% a year over the last two years, years it was never fitted to, with a worst fall of 12.8%. In 2022 it lost 6.8% while Bitcoin lost 64%.
It still has losing years, mostly when the market goes sideways. Its strength is missing most of a crash.